According to ANE, the Giulia’s launch date is next year at the earliest.
Some allege the car is derived from the Fiat Viaggio and not the Maserati Ghibli. The anticipated annnual sales are under 50,000 units say some analysts. Over 6 years that’s 300,000 which is not enough for a car in this sector. It seems to me that projections seem to be based on the idea that sales will be gained left right and centre from other brands in the market. Has this ever happened?
This really hasn’t happened in years. What usually happens is that a market sector fades away with sales going in various directions. Has anyone in recent times launched a category killier that wasn’t a new niche? I mean, a new vehicle of an existing type that ruined the previous champ in that class? A hypothetical example would be if somoene was to launch a new 5-door family hatchback that reduced the sales of the Golf by 50% and took a quarter or Astra, Megane and Focus sales each.
Whoever “owns” a category now seems to stay the boss of that category until the category declines due to outside factors. By this analysis, the Giulia has no chance of being a top dog and Alfa Romeo ought to have found another category in which to compete.
Driven To Write 
I suppose that the Alfa 156 pushed its way in and took quite a few sales from other brands. But things were different then. Audi still didn’t have its feet entirely under the top table and BMW and Mercedes designs of that time were rather conservative. Marchionne is no fool. Does he really think it will succeed, or is he just wanting to be seen doing something in order to justify his position in the life raft?
The market was larger then, wasn´t it? And if the 156 was quite succesful it was not succesful enough to carry customers on to the replacement car.
The market was definitely larger then, and so was the customers’ willingness to buy non-premium in this segment. Both started diminishing on the turn of the millennium. In the ’90s, a Vectra, Mondeo, 406, Carina or Xantia was the most normal thing on our roads. Today we have SUVs, Passats and ABM (Audi, BMW, Mercedes). Opel seems to be the only other contender who has something like a shy comeback in this market.
It was nearly 20 years ago. So much has changed, as Simon says. And in the light of that, Opel´s continued perseverance with the Insignia is commendable. The car has sold well and is far from a rarity. Further, it exists in a large variety of configurations (engines and bodies) while others have trimmed things back. They kept the Omega going for a whole model cycle after the others gave up, I recall.