Micropost: When Will Global Electric Car Sales Exceed Those of the Golf?

Automotive News reports on the future of the electric car here. And the Guardian explains how it is here.

An electric car: automotive news
An electric car: automotive news

In 2016 there will be 2 million electric cars on the roads, says the Guardian. And in 2030 electric cars will predominate in the world’s major cities. If it’s hard finding a petrol station in London now, it will be nigh on impossible in 2030. I wonder will they have special parking places for petrol cars with their own little recharging posts?

Another milestone for electric cars is when their sales exceed the production of the VW Golf. Annual sales of the Golf are 930,000 units. In 2015 annual sales of electric cars was 740,000 units. Those 740,000 units are divided among many manufacturers. Someone is taking a bath on this at the moment.

Author: richard herriott

I like anchovies. I dislike post-war town planning.

14 thoughts on “Micropost: When Will Global Electric Car Sales Exceed Those of the Golf?”

  1. I don’t understand how all these electric vehicles are going to be charged. Certainly in the UK the national electricity grid doesn’t currently have the infrastructure or capacity to support mass ownership. I think Mr Musk should invest some of those billions into nuclear fusion research.

  2. I guess at some time in the near future, the Golf itself will be electric. The question will be redundant then.

    1. It was more of a question to put the sales of e-cars in perspective. One model (whose basic components are used on a dozen other cars) from one firm outsells all e-cars combined. We’re told only economies of scale make a model viable so the e-cars must be losing money now. That’s not going to stop them. It’s also another way of saying that the best path to success is Golfiness. Perhaps the e-car that will break through is the one that is the fastest to achieving Golfiness.

    2. It’s allready here: the E-Golf!
      And i guess it comes as no surprise that it is a huge success in here in Norway.

  3. You’re right: everyone is taking a bath on electric cars, even Tesla, which is proving to be a sinkhole of cash. The propulsion systems of electric cars are relatively simple in principle. The reality is that developing the hardware/software required (primarily to coddle the battery) is proving a nightmare. In the meantime ICE propulsion is a mature technology enjoying engineering support from a multitude of OEMS.
    How this will play out in the long term is anyone’s guess. I suspect that the forever promised leap in battery technologies may never come, or at least will perpetually lag just behind need, creating a situation of constantly running to stay still as currently faced by smartphone manufacturers. The victors may be those manufacturers who can leverage the least worst electric solution at the most palatable price, just at the point where ICE usage becomes untenable. But when will that be?

    1. In the next decade. The switch over will be over one and half model cycles. In about twenty years most ICE cars will be fossils and toys.

  4. Bjarne: Well, indeed. The e-Golf even scored well in a TG review. “VW quotes a range of 118 miles on a single charge”. If they can bring that up to anywhere over 300 miles then they´ll have a car that do 98% of what people ask of them. Just 180 more miles. Renault are close to this with one of their current cars (Zoe?)

  5. The soon to be released Bolt/ Ampera has a 238 mile EPA rating and journalists have gone beyond that in real driving conditions.

  6. Global sales of EVs are 740,000 annually? Not according to the link provided, nor from what I’ve read. That 740, 000 is total sales from day one to the end of 2015, not annual purchases.

    In addition, if one is going to include PHEVs as the site Clean Technica loosely does, then there are a great many Ford B Max and C Maxes missing in action from the totals. It’s all a bit of a shambles that place.

    Much like the EV market in general. I’d say people are staying away from EVs in droves, seeing it as another attempt from the eye in the sky national policymakers to push something the general public couldn’t care less about. Nowhere to charge them at most blocks of flats (and what happens when your car has to be street parked?), general utter inconvenience and range anxiety. Why bother?

    To add to the topdown push, we’ll soon get prissy autonomous cars, the biggest build-up to a bust the car industry has seen. There’ll be so many caveats to their autonomous use, not least the weather, it’ll be years before they get it right, notwithstanding the brainiac young system programmers, many of whom have never owned a car and have no real driving experience to assist in their robotic car response standards. It’ll be automation from a textbook. The current systems monitoring one’s braking seem to go into a blind panic when you come up behind another stopped car at a traffic light and haven’t been gently decelerating like your half-blind grandma. What an utter joke all this is! Who requested it?

    Also, nobody seems to have given serious thought to how to charge EVs for use of the roads as one does through fuel taxes. Hello GPS to track your mileage and movements and whack you 10p a mile for scuffing up your share of the asphalt, while solemn social scientists grab the data and write learned articles on how people live, all without their permission.

    Privacy? Gone.

    1. I read that today. In the total amount of time taken in a petrol station, that charging time is now an unnoticeable difference. I mean, if people take, say, 7-9 minutes to do the whole petrol station thing including refuellling, faffing around the magazines and papers, considering which Ginster to buy, not taking one, and queuing and abandoning the queue to get the Ginster and back again then 5 minutres is within the normal range of time.

      In 2019 2.1 million electric cars were sold.

    2. Absolutely. I guess this won’t only apply to cars, but also to phones, etc (?). It would be revolutionary.

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