Denmark announced a few days back that ICE cars would be banned from sale by 2030. That’s 12 years or roughly not enough model cycles…
A car launched in 2018 might be replaced in 2025 leaving a short product cycle to recoup investments. That makes the period around now the last point at which it will be worth bothering to engineer for ICE engines. The UK has, not surprisingly, gone with a cut-off for ICE engines of 2040 but I think that if this change-over happens at the planned speed, the UK will change over faster than 2040. (Whether or not it´s part of the EU, EU policy will affect the UK).
We have been discussing here how manufacturers can
not be troubled so much with hardware engineering innovation but prefer to tinker with the electronic side. Well, if you didn’t see much future in much of the machinery associated with ICE then perhaps that shift of attention makes more sense. Innovations (such as they are) in electronics will be carried forward into the electric car package whereas driveline technology and the bits that touch it much less so.
So, if much of the EU decides that an ICE car is not saleable after 2030, many manufacturers must be looking hard at what is worth renewing for sale in 2023; thereafter the case for further investment in ICE gets weaker and weaker. Will niche cars make the cut?
Signs that the industry is going to adapt to the ICE ban would be in the first instance a gradual change in personel from those experienced in ICE technology to those able to deal with battery technology.